Africa is entering a critical period for its food economy as rising global commodity prices, elevated fertilizer costs, uneven regional food supplies and growing climate risks converge to put pressure on agricultural production, household purchasing power and economic stability.
The latest market developments suggest that while improved harvests are easing food prices in parts of Africa, the gains remain fragile. The expected strengthening of the 2026 El Niño event could disrupt the next agricultural season, while high input costs and persistent insecurity continue to constrain production and market access across several regions.
The pressure is already visible in global commodity markets. The FAO Food Price Index increased by 0.6% in July 2026 from the previous month and 1% from a year earlier, driven by higher cereal, sugar and vegetable oil prices amid weather-related production concerns, uncertainties surrounding Black Sea exports, strong biofuel demand and rising crude oil prices.
The International Grains Council’s Grains and Oilseeds Index recorded a stronger increase, rising 6% from June and 11.6% year-on-year, with wheat and soybeans among the main commodities driving the gains. Rice prices, however, remained broadly stable.
For Africa, the significance of these movements extends beyond food prices. Higher global commodity prices can increase import costs for countries dependent on external supplies, while rising agricultural input prices can raise production costs for farmers and eventually feed into consumer prices.
Fertilizer costs add pressure to African agriculture
Fertilizer markets presented mixed developments in July, but prices for several key products remained substantially higher than a year earlier.
Phosphate fertilizers remained firm, with DAP and MAP prices increasing marginally, while potash prices were broadly stable. Urea prices declined for a third consecutive month from their April peak, but remained above year-earlier levels.
Across Africa, fertilizer prices remained particularly elevated in Rwanda, Malawi and Mozambique, where annual increases for key products exceeded 35% and, in some cases, 50%.
The divergence is significant for agricultural economies. Higher fertilizer costs can increase farmers’ production expenses and make it more difficult for smallholders to maintain or increase input use. Where farmers reduce fertilizer application because of cost pressures, future yields may also come under pressure, particularly when combined with adverse weather.
Uganda and Nigeria, by contrast, showed signs of price easing following earlier increases, while Zambia recorded some of the most significant declines, pointing to improving supply conditions in those markets.
El Niño raises the stakes for the 2026/27 agricultural season
The biggest forward-looking risk for Africa’s food economy is the expected strengthening and persistence of El Niño.
According to the outlook cited in the latest assessment, there is an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño developing between October and December 2026 and a 97% probability that El Niño conditions could persist through April 2027.
The potential economic effects extend beyond agriculture. Droughts, floods and prolonged rainfall disruptions can reduce crop and livestock production, weaken rural incomes, increase food prices and raise demand for government and humanitarian assistance.
The African Development Bank estimates that severe El Niño impacts could reduce GDP in heavily affected African countries by 1–2% and generate economic losses of between US$10 billion and US$20 billion through crop failures, livestock losses, infrastructure damage, higher food prices and increased migration pressures.
Early signs of the vulnerability are already emerging in East Africa. In Kenya’s Baringo County, prolonged dry conditions have reportedly destroyed an estimated 75% of the expected maize harvest, with losses reaching up to 80% in some lowland areas.
Such losses highlight the economic transmission mechanism of climate shocks: reduced production can tighten supplies, increase food prices, weaken farm incomes and place additional pressure on households and governments.
East Africa shows widening differences between surplus and deficit markets
Food markets across East Africa moved in different directions in July, reflecting the uneven impact of harvests, weather conditions and supply constraints.
Maize prices declined in Tanzania by 9.2%, Uganda by 4.7% and Rwanda by 1.2% as harvest arrivals improved market availability. At the same time, prices increased by 29.8% in South Sudan, 9.5% in Ethiopia and 3.3% in Kenya amid supply constraints and production concerns.
Rice prices were comparatively stable, declining by 5.6% in Uganda, 4% in Tanzania and 1.5% in Rwanda, while increasing marginally in Kenya and South Sudan.
Bean prices also generally weakened, falling by 17.2% in Uganda, 5.6% in Tanzania and 3.1% in Rwanda. Kenya, however, recorded increases of about 2.4–2.9% amid tightening domestic supplies.
The regional divergence illustrates the importance of cross-border trade and efficient distribution systems. Surplus-producing countries can help moderate prices in deficit markets, but the benefits depend on functioning transport networks, predictable trade policies, sufficient storage and affordable logistics.
Southern Africa benefits from improved supplies but remains exposed
Southern Africa entered July with relatively favourable food-market conditions following the completion of the main harvest season.
Maize prices declined by 9.9% in Zambia and 1.9% in Mozambique as new supplies entered markets, although Malawi recorded a 3.2% increase amid localized supply pressures and strong demand.
Rice prices remained broadly stable, while bean prices declined in Mozambique and Zambia. Despite these variations, prices of most staple foods remained below levels recorded six months and one year earlier, indicating improved availability and reduced market pressure.
The improvement, however, should not be interpreted as a permanent reversal of food-security risks.
Forecasts of El Niño-induced dry spells threaten the 2026/27 agricultural season, while parts of Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe could experience increasing food insecurity during the lean season as household stocks decline and dependence on markets increases.
Mozambique remains particularly vulnerable. Crisis-level food insecurity persists in conflict-affected northern Cabo Delgado, where insecure livelihoods, low incomes and rising food prices continue to weaken household resilience.
West Africa faces a more fragmented market picture
West African food markets remained relatively stable overall in July, but localized price increases point to continuing vulnerabilities.
Maize prices increased by 6.3% in Ghana, 7.9% in Togo’s Centrale region and as much as 28.6% in Niger. In contrast, prices declined by 4.1% in Nigeria and between 6.3% and 7.4% in several Malian markets.
The strongest upward pressure was recorded in millet and sorghum markets in Niger, where millet prices increased by as much as 21.7% and sorghum by 21.9%.
Although prices for many staples remained below year-earlier levels, conflict, insecurity, fuel costs, fertilizer prices and uneven rainfall continue to pose risks to production and market access, particularly in the Sahel.
Food insecurity remains an economic vulnerability
The regional market picture is closely linked to household purchasing power.
In East Africa, Ethiopia, South Sudan and parts of Uganda and Kenya continue to experience significant food insecurity. South Sudan faces some of the most severe conditions, including Emergency-level outcomes and a risk of Famine in some conflict-affected areas.
In Southern Africa, conditions are generally more favourable following improved harvests, with Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe predominantly recording Minimal to Stressed outcomes. However, conditions are expected to deteriorate in some areas as household stocks decline and food, fuel and transport costs remain elevated.
West Africa continues to experience Crisis and Emergency outcomes in conflict-affected areas of Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and northern Togo.
The economic concern is that food insecurity can become self-reinforcing. High prices reduce household purchasing power; reduced purchasing power limits access to food and agricultural inputs; weaker production then contributes to tighter supplies and renewed price pressure.
Trade emerges as part of Africa’s economic response
Against these pressures, recent trade developments point to efforts to strengthen food markets, improve supply chains and expand intra-African commerce.
Burkina Faso has lifted a four-year ban on exports of millet, maize and sorghum flour, allowing processors to access foreign markets while requiring special export permits to monitor volumes and protect domestic supplies.
The move follows a 53% increase in national cereal production between 2021/22 and 2025/26, creating greater room for local processing and external market opportunities.
In Nigeria, the Customs Service has launched a pilot Management Information System and Electronic Cargo Tracking System at the PTML Area Command in Lagos.
The initiative is designed to improve cargo monitoring, streamline trade procedures and strengthen transparency in border management.
Afreximbank’s Africa Trade and Distribution Company has also launched trade and distribution platforms in Zimbabwe and Malawi through partnerships with CBZ Agro Yield and Press Corporation. The platforms are intended to strengthen commodity aggregation, warehousing, logistics, trade finance and market access while supporting SMEs and intra-African trade.
These initiatives highlight an important dimension of Africa’s food challenge: improving food security requires not only increasing production but also making it easier and cheaper to move agricultural commodities across markets.
Building resilience before the next shock
Africa’s current food-market conditions present both a warning and an opportunity.
Lower staple prices in several countries demonstrate that improved harvests can quickly ease market pressure. But elevated fertilizer costs, climate uncertainty, conflict and weak household purchasing power show how easily those gains can be reversed.
The expected El Niño episode therefore raises the importance of preparedness. Investments in climate-resilient agriculture, affordable inputs, irrigation, storage, strategic food reserves, agricultural finance, insurance and regional trade infrastructure could help African economies absorb future shocks.
The broader economic lesson is clear: Africa’s food-security challenge is increasingly a question of economic resilience.
The countries and regional markets best positioned to withstand the next shock will not necessarily be those that simply produce the most food, but those able to combine productive agriculture with affordable inputs, efficient logistics, functioning trade corridors, strong market institutions and sufficient purchasing power.
As Africa enters the 2026/27 agricultural season, the priority will therefore be to protect the gains achieved in food availability while strengthening the systems that allow food, finance and agricultural inputs to move efficiently across borders.
