Jackson Kwizera
Mu gihe umwuka mubi ukomeje kwiyongera mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, kandi hari impungenge ko inzira ya Strait of Hormuz ishobora kumara igihe ihungabanye, u Buhindi bushobora kongera kwishingikiriza cyane ku mavuta ava mu Burusiya.
Ibi si uko bwaba buhinduriye politiki yabwo ku ruhande rwa politiki mpuzamahanga, ahubwo ni ukubera impamvu z’ubwikorezi n’umutekano w’itangwa ry’ingufu, nk’uko amakuru aturuka muri guverinoma yabitangarije ikinyamakuru Business Today.
Strait of Hormuz, iherereye hagati ya Iran na Oman, inyuzwamo hafi kimwe cya gatanu cy’amavuta yose acuruzwa ku isi. Ku Buhindi, ingaruka ni nini cyane: hagati ya barili miliyoni 2.5 na 2.7 z’amavuta zigenewe u Buhindi zinyura muri iyi nzira buri munsi, nk’uko imibare ya Kpler ibigaragaza.
Hafi bibiri bya gatatu by’umwuka wa gaz (LNG) woherezwa mu Buhindi ndetse na 95% bya gaz ya LPG bituruka mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, kandi hafi byose binyura muri ayo mazi.
Gufugwa kuwo muhoro w’inzira byagize ingaruka ku bihugu by’ingenzi biha u Buhindi ingufu, birimo Arabiya Sawudite, Iraq, Kuwait na Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu.
Ku rundi ruhande, amavuta ava mu Burusiya anyura mu yindi nzira y’inyanja. Ubwato buyikoreye busanzwe buva ku byambu byo mu Nyanja ya Baltique cyangwa mu Nyanja y’Umukara, bukanyura mu muyoboro wa Suez cyangwa bukazenguruka ku musozi wa Cape of Good Hope, bukinjira mu Nyanja y’Abarabu butanyuze muri Hormuz. Icy’ingenzi ni uko ayo mavuta atanyura muri iyo nzira iri mu kaga.
Mu gihe Hormuz yafungwa cyangwa igashyirirwaho amategeko akakaye, amavuta y’u Burusiya yaba ari mu nyanja cyangwa ategereje gupakururwa ntiyagira ingaruka zituruka kuri iryo funga, mu gihe ay’ibihugu byo mu Kigobe (Gulf yo yahura n’icyo kibazo.
Nyuma y’intambara yo muri Ukraine, u Buhindi bwabaye igihugu cya mbere kigura amavuta menshi y’u Burusiya anyujijwe mu nyanja, kubera ko yabaga agurishwa ku giciro kiri hasi. Mu mezi ya vuba aha ariko, ibyo kugura byaragabanyutse bitewe n’igitutu cya dipolomasi ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika no kuzamuka kw’imikoranire myiza y’ubucuruzi hagati ya Washington na New Delhi.
Imibare ya Kpler igaragaza ko muri Gashyantare, u Buhindi bwatumije amavuta y’u Burusiya arenga gato barili miliyoni 1 ku munsi, avuye kuri barili miliyoni 1.2 ku munsi muri Ukuboza. Hagati aho, amavuta aturuka muri Arabiya Sawudite yiyongereyeho hafi 30% mu kwezi kumwe, arenga barili miliyoni 1 ku munsi urugero rwo hejuru rutabonetse mu myaka hafi itandatu ishize.
Inzego za guverinoma zemeza ko u Buhindi bufite ububiko bw’amavuta bungana n’iminsi igera kuri 25, ndetse n’ibikomoka kuri peteroli nabyo bifite ububiko bungana n’iminsi 25. Nk’uko leta ibivuga, ububiko bw’iminsi 50 bwaba ari urwego rwiza kandi ruhagije rwo kwizerwa.
Ariko niba ihungabana rya Hormuz rikomeje, ibiciro by’ubwikorezi cyangwa ubwishingizi bikazamuka mu mazi yo mu Kigobe, inganda zitunganya amavuta zishobora gushyira imbere umutekano w’inzira n’ubwizerwe bw’itangwa ry’amavuta.
Muri uko guhungabana kw’akarere, amavuta y’u Burusiya atanyura muri Hormuz ashobora kongera kuba igisubizo gifatika mu kurinda umutekano w’ingufu z’u Buhindi.
