Nyuma y’imyigaragambyo yatangiye mu bihugu bimwe na bimwe ikorwa cyane cyane n’urubyiruko aho bamwe bagira bati «pas de climat pas de future» nta kirere nta buzima abandi bati « twaba twigira iki kandi ejo nta buzima».
Ku itariki 8 ukwakira 2018 muri Koreya y’Amajyepfo, impuguke zasohoye raporo y’umwihariko ku «ingaruka z’izamuka ry’ubushyuhe ku isi ho dogere serisiyusi 1,5 »ni igikorwa cyahuje impuguke zigera kuri 91 ziturutse mu bihugu bigera kuri 40, hagamijwe kwerekana akamaro byagira ku isi igihe izamuka ry’ubushyuhe ritarenze dogere serisiyusi 1,5 (1,5 oc) aho kugera kuri 2oc nk’uko ibipimo byerekanye, igihe ntacyakorwa bivuga ko hazagabanuka ho nibura 0,5oc. Ikibazo kikaba ari ukwibaza niba iyi ntego koko yabasha kugerwaho.
Nubwo uhereye mu gihe kibanziriza iterambere ry’inganda nko mu myaka ya 1800 ubushyuhe ku isi bumaze kuzamukaho 1oc. Iyi raporo yerekanywe yatanze ubutumwa 4 bwinzenzi aribwoko; Ubushyuhe ku isi bukomeje kuzamuka; Ubu buryo bwo kuzamuka nibura kuri 1,5oc gusa buracyashobsoka ariko bigakorwa vuba kdi ntakibikomye imbere; Hari akamaro kanini cyane ko ubushyuhe nibura bwagera kuri 1,5oc aho kugera kuri 2oc kko buri gice cy umubare w ubushyuhe kivuze byinshi; kugabanya ubwiyongere bw’ ubushyuhe byatuma n’ izindi ntego isi ifite mu iterambere rirambye zigerwaho nko kurwanya ubukene, inzara…
Muri make kugabanya izamuka ry’ubushyuhe ku isi bizagabanya n’ibyago abantu bahura nabyo biterwa no kwangirika kw’ikirere n’ubukene. Iyi raporo ya Giec ishimangira akamaro isi yagira igihe igipimo cy’ububushyuhe ku isi kitarenga1,5oc ko gikabije.
Nk’uko byagaragajwe ni uko igice cya dogere selisiyusi (0,5oc) kigaragaza ko ubushyuhe bwazamuka ho 1,5oc aho kuba 2oc bishobora guteza izamuka ry’ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi, ubutaka ndetse n’inyanja, imyuzure mu bice bimwe by’isi, amapfa no kugabanuka kw’imvura mu bice by’isi.
Bimwe mu byerekana ubukana bw’izamuka ry’ubushyuhe ni uko kuba bwazamuka kugera kuri 1,5oc aho kuba 2oc byatuma amazi y’inyanja atazamukaho santimetero 10 ugeraranyije n’uko ubushyuhe bwazamuka kugera 2oc. Ibi bikaba byarinda abatuye isi bagera kuri miliyoni icumi kutagerwahao n’imyuzure iturutse ku izamuka ry’amazi yo mu nyanja.
Nubwo biteragera kuri 20c, uku kuzamuka kw’igipimo cy’ubushyuhe bizagira ingaruka ku rusobe rw’ibinyabuzima. Hazazimira 9,6 ku ijana by’udusimba, 8 ku ijana by’ubwoko bw’ibimera na 4 ku ijana by’inyamanswa. 18 ku ijana by’udusimba,16 ku ijana by’ ubwoko bw’ibimera na 8 kw’ijana by’inyamanswa igihe ubushyuhe bwazamukaho 2oc byose bizagerwaho n’izo ngaruka.
Muri make izamuka ry’ubushyuhe ritarengeje 1,5oc, isi izaba igishobora guturwaho n’ikiremwa muntu nubwo uko ubushyuhe buzamuka byakomeza guteza ubukene n’ibindi bibazo, bizagabanya kandi ibyago ku bantu benshi byokugerwaho n’ ingaruka ziterwa n’ihindagurika ry’ikirere n’umubare munini w’abashobora kugerwaho n’ubukene kugeza mu 2050 .
Muri rusange ikiremwa muntu cyoherereza mu kirere imyuka ihumanya ingana na toni miliyari 40 mu gihe cy’umwaka, ibi bituma ubushyuhe buzamuka ku kigero cya 0,2oc mu kinyejana kimwe.
Intego z’isi ni ukugabanya nibura 45-50, bingana hafi na miliyari 20 by’imyuka ihumanye twohereza mu kirere kugeza 2030. Ingamba nizikomeza gufatwa kandi zigashyirwamo imbaraga kikazaba cyageze kuri zero mu 2050.
Igikenewe akaba atari kugera ku gipimo cy’ubushyuhe cya 1,5oc gusa, ahubwo hagomba no gushyirwaho uburyo bwo gufata carbone nk’izindi ngamba.
Hagomba kwitabwaho kandi ibikorwa bya muntu mu kugabanya imyuka yoherezwa mu kirere nk’ikoreshwa ry’ingufu, ubutaka, imiturire, ubwikorezi, ibikorwaremezo byose bigakorwa mu buryo burengera ibidukikije.
Ingufu zisubiramo zigomba kugerwa kugeza kuri 70-80 ku ijana by’ingufu z’amashanyarazi zizaba zikoreshwa kugera mu 2050, na ho ikoreshwa ry’amakara rikarangira burundu cyangwa ntirenze 2 ku ijana by’ingufu zikoreswa muri uwo mwaka. Hakwiye guterwa amashyamba menshi kandi hakanabungwabungwa n’ahari.
Bukibaruta Nkubiri Robert
